Magesi 1–2 Orbit College: Result & Stats

Magesi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Orbit College

M. Matima 42'

G. Khoto 37'

L. Mahlatsi 22'

5/5/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 27Seshego Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Magesi43%

×Draw28%

Orbit College28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MagesiExpected goals in this matchOrbit College

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Magesi

1.27

Orbit College

0.96

Magesi creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

0.71

1.22

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Magesi

1.13

Orbit College

0.71

allows per match

Magesi

1.22

Orbit College

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magesi+0.00on par

Orbit College+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magesi ↓

Orbit College →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Magesi or draw

72%

Magesi or Orbit College

72%

Draw or Orbit College

57%

Winning margin

Magesi wins by 2+

20%

Orbit College wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Magesi 1+ goals

72%

Magesi 2+ goals

36%

Magesi 3+ goals

14%

Orbit College 1+ goals

62%

Orbit College 2+ goals

25%

Orbit College 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Magesi (draw refunded)

61%

Orbit College (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magesi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Orbit College away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magesi attack 1.13 + Orbit College defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Orbit College attack 0.71 + Magesi defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Magesi scores more

43%

level

28%

Orbit College scores more

28%

Magesi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Magesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

K. Setlhodi

Orbit College · M

7.7

Match Events

22'

L. Mahlatsi↳ K. Setlhodi

30'

Karabo Mgeshane

36'

Yanga Madiba

37'

G. Khoto↳ K. Setlhodi

42'

M. Matima↳ M. Vandala

43'

Motsie Matima

46'

T. Nyama← J. M. Mokone

46'

E. Chirambadare← T. Masegela

46'

T. Sibanyoni← K. Mosadi

53'

A. Batsi← L. Lesako

62'

L. Modimoeng← K. Setlhodi

67'

72'

74'

83'

83'

A. Seseane← M. Vandala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MagesiOrbit

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots6

5Corners3

15Fouls20

Shots

18Total Shots6

1On Target4

11Off Target2

6Blocked0

10Inside Box1

8Outside Box5

Passing

67%Possession33%

364Total Passes183

260Accurate Passes87

71%Pass Accuracy48%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls20

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2