Orbit College 1–3 Kaizer Chiefs: Result & Stats

Orbit College

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Kaizer Chiefs

M. Wagaba 22'

S. Ndlovu 78'

M. Shabalala 68'

W. Duba 42'

4/6/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 23Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Orbit College24%

×Draw30%

Kaizer Chiefs46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orbit CollegeExpected goals in this matchKaizer Chiefs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.21

Orbit College

0.79

Kaizer Chiefs

1.21

Kaizer Chiefs creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 124 away

0.65

creates per match

1.07

1.35

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Orbit College

0.65

Kaizer Chiefs

1.07

allows per match

Orbit College

1.35

Kaizer Chiefs

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orbit College+0.00on par

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orbit College ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Orbit College or draw

54%

Orbit College or Kaizer Chiefs

70%

Draw or Kaizer Chiefs

76%

Winning margin

Orbit College wins by 2+

7%

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Orbit College 1+ goals

55%

Orbit College 2+ goals

19%

Orbit College 3+ goals

5%

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals

70%

Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals

34%

Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Orbit College (draw refunded)

34%

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orbit College at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orbit College attack 0.65 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.79

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Orbit College defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orbit College scores more

24%

level

30%

Kaizer Chiefs scores more

46%

Kaizer Chiefs at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

48

B. Cross

Kaizer Chiefs · D

7.9

Match Events

21'

22'

24'

38'

42'

W. Duba↳ B. Cross

61'

S. Ndlovu← N. Ngcobo

61'

F. Silva← P. Mmodi

68'

M. Shabalala↳ T. Monyane

69'

E. Chislett← W. Duba

69'

M. Vilakazi← M. Shabalala

75'

Bruce Bvuma

78'

S. Ndlovu↳ F. Silva

81'

A. Velebayi← M. Lilepo

87'

B. Ralani← Ciro

87'

K. Masangane← L. Lesako

87'

A. Lukhele← M. Wagaba

87'

Y. Madiba← T. Jingana

90+5'

Siyabulela Mabele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

OrbitKaizer

Overview

26%Possession74%

7Total Shots10

3Corners4

21Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target4

4Off Target5

1Blocked1

5Inside Box3

2Outside Box7

Passing

26%Possession74%

213Total Passes624

127Accurate Passes541

60%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2