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Kaizer Chiefs vs Orbit College — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orbit College
Orbit College
F. Silva 89'
M. Vilakazi 73'
M. Shabalala 61', 4'
A. Lukhele 70'
11/4/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12First National Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs47%
×Draw29%
Orbit College25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.29
Orbit College
0.85

Kaizer Chiefs creates 52% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.17
Orbit College
0.71

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.00
Orbit College
1.41

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Orbit College+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Orbit College →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
75%
Kaizer Chiefs or Orbit College
71%
Draw or Orbit College
53%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
22%
Orbit College wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
72%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
37%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
14%
Orbit College 1+ goals
57%
Orbit College 2+ goals
21%
Orbit College 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
66%
Orbit College (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 125 matches

Orbit College away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.17 + Orbit College defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Orbit College attack 0.71 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
47%
level
29%
Orbit College scores more
25%

Kaizer Chiefs at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. ShabalalaKaizer ChiefsKaizer Chiefs · M
9.0

Match Events

4'
M. Shabalala
29'
Ndumiso Ngiba
58'
L. Lesako← L. Modimoeng
58'
A. Lukhele← T. Moleleki
61'
M. Shabalala
70'
F. Silva← E. Ighodaro
70'
A. Lukhele↳ Y. Madiba
71'
T. Pitso← N. Ngiba
73'
M. Vilakazi↳ M. Shabalala
76'
D. Solomons← T. Monyane
76'
P. Mmodi← M. Vilakazi
76'
G. Sirino← A. Velebayi
81'
L. Maboe← S. Mthethwa
89'
F. Silva↳ M. Shabalala

Possession

59%Kaizer

Shots

19Kaizer

Pass accuracy

52%Kaizer

Statistics

KaizerOrbit
Overview
59%Possession41%
19Total Shots8
4Corners5
7Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots8
7On Target6
7Off Target2
5Blocked0
14Inside Box4
5Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
599Total Passes407
534Accurate Passes338
89%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Premier Soccer League: Kaizer Chiefs 4–1 Orbit College

Kaizer Chiefs beat Orbit College 4-1 in Premier Soccer League on November 4, 2025.

Goals: M. Shabalala (4', 61'), A. Lukhele (70'), M. Vilakazi (73'), F. Silva (89').

Kaizer Chiefs controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at First National Bank Stadium in Johannesburg.