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Orbit College vs Durban City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Orbit College
Orbit College
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Durban City
Durban City
H. Domingo 90'
S. Maseko 55'
T. Nodada 45' (pen)
12/3/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 15Olympia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Orbit College30%
×Draw31%
Durban City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orbit College
0.89
Durban City
1.04

Durban City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Orbit College
0.65
Durban City
0.73

allows per match

Orbit College
1.35
Durban City
1.13

finishing

Orbit College+0.00on par
Durban City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orbit College ↓

Durban City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Orbit College or draw
62%
Orbit College or Durban City
69%
Draw or Durban City
70%

Winning margin

Orbit College wins by 2+
10%
Durban City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Orbit College 1+ goals
59%
Orbit College 2+ goals
22%
Orbit College 3+ goals
6%
Durban City 1+ goals
65%
Durban City 2+ goals
28%
Durban City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Orbit College (draw refunded)
44%
Durban City (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orbit College at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Durban City away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orbit College attack 0.65 + Durban City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.89

Durban City attack 0.73 + Orbit College defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Orbit College scores more
30%
level
31%
Durban City scores more
38%

Durban City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Durban City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. DomingoDurban CityDurban City · M
7.6

Match Events

35'
Olaoleng Mokgosi
45'
T. NodadaPenalty
46'
G. Thibedi← N. Ngiba
49'
Katlego Mkhabela
55'
S. Maseko↳ S. Magawana
71'
H. Domingo← S. Maseko
71'
L. Sifumba← T. Nodada
73'
L. Mahlatsi← L. Modimoeng
79'
L. Koapeng← B. Mokwena
79'
L. De Kock← B. Poggenpoel
87'
R. Letlhake← A. Lukhele
90+2'
S. Ndlovu← M. Wagaba
90'
S. Mthembu← S. Magawana
90'
H. Domingo↳ S. Mthembu

Possession

36%Orbit

Shots

5Orbit

Pass accuracy

43%Orbit

Statistics

OrbitDurban
Overview
36%Possession64%
5Total Shots7
2Corners3
8Fouls15
Shots
5Total Shots7
1On Target4
4Off Target2
0Blocked1
4Inside Box4
1Outside Box3
Passing
36%Possession64%
170Total Passes304
103Accurate Passes249
61%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
3Offsides0

Premier Soccer League: Orbit College 0–3 Durban City

Durban City beat Orbit College 3-0 in Premier Soccer League on December 3, 2025.

Goals: T. Nodada (45' pen), S. Maseko (55'), H. Domingo (90').

Durban City controlled possession (64%) and registered 7 shots to 5.

The match was played at Olympia Park in Rustenburg.