Durban City 1–1 Orbit College: Result & Stats

Durban City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Orbit College

J. Lwamba 58'

G. Khoto 20'

4/24/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 26Chatsworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Durban City48%

×Draw31%

Orbit College21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Durban CityExpected goals in this matchOrbit College

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.66

Durban City

1.17

Orbit College

0.66

Durban City creates 77% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

0.93

creates per match

0.71

0.60

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Durban City

0.93

Orbit College

0.71

allows per match

Durban City

0.60

Orbit College

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Durban City+0.00on par

Orbit College+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durban City ↓

Orbit College →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Durban City or draw

79%

Durban City or Orbit College

69%

Draw or Orbit College

52%

Winning margin

Durban City wins by 2+

21%

Orbit College wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Durban City 1+ goals

69%

Durban City 2+ goals

33%

Durban City 3+ goals

11%

Orbit College 1+ goals

48%

Orbit College 2+ goals

14%

Orbit College 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Durban City (draw refunded)

70%

Orbit College (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durban City at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Orbit College away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durban City attack 0.93 + Orbit College defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Orbit College attack 0.71 + Durban City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Durban City scores more

48%

level

31%

Orbit College scores more

21%

Durban City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Durban City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Jalai

Durban City · D

7.3

Match Events

16'

Kyle Jurgens

20'

G. Khoto↳ L. Lesako

25'

Ndumiso Ngiba

46'

S. Magawana← B. Mthembu

46'

A. Lukhele← K. Setlhodi

51'

Lebohang Lesako

58'

J. Lwamba↳ S. Magawana

62'

T. Nodada← K. Jurgens

67'

S. Mabele← L. Mahlatsi

67'

T. Moleleki← M. Wagaba

67'

A. Batsi← G. Khoto

68'

Thuso Moleleki

71'

T. Falakhe← T. Mashego

71'

R. Maarman← S. Maseko

72'

L. Koapeng← J. Lwamba

76'

Siyabulela Mabele

85'

Thabang Nhlapo

87'

G. Thibedi← L. Lesako

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DurbanOrbit

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots8

8Corners1

16Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots8

5On Target4

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

9Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

418Total Passes253

303Accurate Passes141

72%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls18

1Yellow Cards5

4Offsides2