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Oravské Veselé vs Lokomotíva Zvolen — 3. liga - Center 2020

Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
FT
1 – 0
Lokomotíva Zvolen
Lokomotíva Zvolen
6/13/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 14Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Oravské Veselé70%
×Draw17%
Lokomotíva Zvolen13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oravské Veselé
2.50
Lokomotíva Zvolen
1.00

Oravské Veselé creates 150% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 8 away

creates per match

Oravské Veselé
2.00
Lokomotíva Zvolen
0.88

allows per match

Oravské Veselé
1.11
Lokomotíva Zvolen
3.00

finishing

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par
Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oravské Veselé ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Oravské Veselé or draw
87%
Oravské Veselé or Lokomotíva Zvolen
83%
Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen
30%

Winning margin

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
47%
Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
92%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
71%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
45%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals
63%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals
26%
Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
84%
Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oravské Veselé at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oravské Veselé attack 2.00 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.88 + Oravské Veselé defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Oravské Veselé scores more
70%
level
17%
Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more
13%

Oravské Veselé at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oravské Veselé vs Lokomotíva Zvolen

Oravské Veselé beat Lokomotíva Zvolen 1-0 in 3. liga - Center on June 13, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé in Oravské Veselé.