Lokomotíva Zvolen vs Oravské Veselé

Lokomotíva Zvolen

CANC

15:30

Oravské Veselé

5/19/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 29Areál MFK Lokomotíva Zvolen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen14%

×Draw20%

Oravské Veselé65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotíva ZvolenExpected goals in this matchOravské Veselé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

2.02

Lokomotíva Zvolen

0.81

Oravské Veselé

2.02

Oravské Veselé creates 149% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 35 away

0.43

creates per match

1.34

2.71

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

0.43

Oravské Veselé

1.34

allows per match

Lokomotíva Zvolen

2.71

Oravské Veselé

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotíva Zvolen ↓

Oravské Veselé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lokomotíva Zvolen or draw

35%

Lokomotíva Zvolen or Oravské Veselé

80%

Draw or Oravské Veselé

86%

Winning margin

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

4%

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

56%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

19%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

5%

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals

87%

Oravské Veselé 2+ goals

60%

Oravské Veselé 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

18%

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotíva Zvolen at home — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Oravské Veselé away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.43 + Oravské Veselé defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.81

Oravské Veselé attack 1.34 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

14%

level

20%

Oravské Veselé scores more

65%

Oravské Veselé at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff