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Oravské Veselé vs Kováčová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
CANC
15:30
Kováčová
Kováčová
6/2/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 30Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Oravské Veselé52%
×Draw24%
Kováčová24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oravské Veselé
1.74
Kováčová
1.12

Oravské Veselé creates 55% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Oravské Veselé
2.00
Kováčová
1.13

allows per match

Oravské Veselé
1.11
Kováčová
1.48

finishing

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par
Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oravské Veselé ↓

Kováčová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Oravské Veselé or draw
76%
Oravské Veselé or Kováčová
76%
Draw or Kováčová
48%

Winning margin

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
28%
Kováčová wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
82%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
52%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
25%
Kováčová 1+ goals
67%
Kováčová 2+ goals
31%
Kováčová 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
68%
Kováčová (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oravské Veselé at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oravské Veselé attack 2.00 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Oravské Veselé defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Oravské Veselé scores more
52%
level
24%
Kováčová scores more
24%

Oravské Veselé at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oravské Veselé vs Kováčová — Match Preview

Oravské Veselé face Kováčová on June 2, 2021 in this 3. liga - Center fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Oravské Veselé host Kováčová at Futbalový štadión TJ Tatran Oravské Veselé.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.