Kováčová 1–0 Oravské Veselé: Result & Stats

Kováčová

FT

1 – 0

Oravské Veselé

6/6/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 15Štadión ŠK Prameň Kováčová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kováčová36%

×Draw26%

Oravské Veselé38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KováčováExpected goals in this matchOravské Veselé

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.35

Kováčová

1.30

Oravské Veselé

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

1.41

creates per match

1.34

1.36

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Kováčová

1.41

Oravské Veselé

1.34

allows per match

Kováčová

1.36

Oravské Veselé

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kováčová+0.00on par

Oravské Veselé+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kováčová ↓

Oravské Veselé →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kováčová or draw

62%

Kováčová or Oravské Veselé

74%

Draw or Oravské Veselé

64%

Winning margin

Kováčová wins by 2+

16%

Oravské Veselé wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kováčová 1+ goals

73%

Kováčová 2+ goals

37%

Kováčová 3+ goals

14%

Oravské Veselé 1+ goals

74%

Oravské Veselé 2+ goals

39%

Oravské Veselé 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kováčová (draw refunded)

48%

Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kováčová at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Oravské Veselé away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kováčová attack 1.41 + Oravské Veselé defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Oravské Veselé attack 1.34 + Kováčová defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kováčová scores more

36%

level

26%

Oravské Veselé scores more

38%

Oravské Veselé at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff