Orange County SC 2–2 Miami FC: Result & Stats

Orange County SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Miami FC

3/24/2024

USL Championship · Round 4Championship Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Orange County SC50%

×Draw25%

Miami FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orange County SCExpected goals in this matchMiami FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.07

Orange County SC

1.60

Miami FC

1.07

Orange County SC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 100 away

1.60

creates per match

1.07

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Orange County SC

1.60

Miami FC

1.07

allows per match

Orange County SC

1.07

Miami FC

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par

Miami FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Miami FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw

75%

Orange County SC or Miami FC

75%

Draw or Miami FC

50%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+

26%

Miami FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals

80%

Orange County SC 2+ goals

47%

Orange County SC 3+ goals

22%

Miami FC 1+ goals

66%

Miami FC 2+ goals

29%

Miami FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)

66%

Miami FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Miami FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.61 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Miami FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Miami FC attack 1.07 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Orange County SC scores more

50%

level

25%

Miami FC scores more

25%

Orange County SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff