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Miami FC vs Orange County SC — USL Championship 2026

Miami FC
Miami FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Orange County SC
Orange County SC
5/27/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 14Riccardo Silva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Miami FC38%
×Draw25%
Orange County SC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miami FC
1.45
Orange County SC
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 137 away

creates per match

Miami FC
1.37
Orange County SC
1.34

allows per match

Miami FC
1.52
Orange County SC
1.53

finishing

Miami FC+0.00on par
Orange County SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miami FC ↓

Orange County SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Miami FC or draw
63%
Miami FC or Orange County SC
75%
Draw or Orange County SC
62%

Winning margin

Miami FC wins by 2+
18%
Orange County SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Miami FC 1+ goals
77%
Miami FC 2+ goals
42%
Miami FC 3+ goals
18%
Orange County SC 1+ goals
76%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
42%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Miami FC (draw refunded)
51%
Orange County SC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miami FC at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

Orange County SC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.53 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miami FC attack 1.37 + Orange County SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Orange County SC attack 1.34 + Miami FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Miami FC scores more
38%
level
25%
Orange County SC scores more
37%

Miami FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Miami FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miami FC vs Orange County SC

Miami FC and Orange County SC drew 0-0 in USL Championship on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Riccardo Silva Stadium in Miami, Florida.