Orange County SC 2–0 Fresno FC: Result & Stats

Orange County SC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fresno FC

10/20/2019

USL Championship · Round 62Championship Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Orange County SC46%

×Draw26%

Fresno FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Orange County SCExpected goals in this matchFresno FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.11

Orange County SC

1.48

Fresno FC

1.11

Orange County SC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 34 away

1.60

creates per match

1.15

1.07

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Orange County SC

1.60

Fresno FC

1.15

allows per match

Orange County SC

1.07

Fresno FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par

Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Fresno FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw

72%

Orange County SC or Fresno FC

74%

Draw or Fresno FC

54%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+

23%

Fresno FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals

77%

Orange County SC 2+ goals

43%

Orange County SC 3+ goals

19%

Fresno FC 1+ goals

67%

Fresno FC 2+ goals

30%

Fresno FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)

62%

Fresno FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Orange County SC scores more

46%

level

26%

Fresno FC scores more

28%

Orange County SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff