Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fresno FC vs Orange County SC — USL Championship 2018

Fresno FC
Fresno FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Orange County SC
Orange County SC
4/27/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 14Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC48%
×Draw24%
Orange County SC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fresno FC
1.70
Orange County SC
1.23

Fresno FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 138 away

creates per match

Fresno FC
1.86
Orange County SC
1.35

allows per match

Fresno FC
1.11
Orange County SC
1.53

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par
Orange County SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

Orange County SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw
72%
Fresno FC or Orange County SC
76%
Draw or Orange County SC
52%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+
26%
Orange County SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals
82%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
51%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
24%
Orange County SC 1+ goals
71%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
35%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)
64%
Orange County SC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Orange County SC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Orange County SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Orange County SC attack 1.35 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fresno FC scores more
48%
level
24%
Orange County SC scores more
28%

Fresno FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fresno FC vs Orange County SC

Fresno FC and Orange County SC drew 2-2 in USL Championship on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California).