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Orange County SC vs Austin Bold — USL Championship 2018

Orange County SC
Orange County SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Austin Bold
Austin Bold
5/19/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 20Championship Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Orange County SC52%
×Draw24%
Austin Bold24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orange County SC
1.69
Austin Bold
1.08

Orange County SC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 41 away

creates per match

Orange County SC
1.60
Austin Bold
1.10

allows per match

Orange County SC
1.07
Austin Bold
1.78

finishing

Orange County SC+0.00on par
Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orange County SC ↓

Austin Bold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Orange County SC or draw
76%
Orange County SC or Austin Bold
76%
Draw or Austin Bold
48%

Winning margin

Orange County SC wins by 2+
28%
Austin Bold wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Orange County SC 1+ goals
82%
Orange County SC 2+ goals
50%
Orange County SC 3+ goals
24%
Austin Bold 1+ goals
66%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
29%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Orange County SC (draw refunded)
68%
Austin Bold (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orange County SC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.07 · 136 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orange County SC attack 1.60 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + Orange County SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Orange County SC scores more
52%
level
24%
Austin Bold scores more
24%

Orange County SC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Orange County SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Orange County SC 2–2 Austin Bold

Orange County SC and Austin Bold drew 2-2 in USL Championship on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Championship Soccer Stadium at OC Great Park (Irvine, California).