Austin Bold 3–2 Orange County SC: Result & Stats

Austin Bold

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Orange County SC

7/14/2019

USL Championship · Round 33Bold Stadium (Austin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Austin Bold46%

×Draw24%

Orange County SC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austin BoldExpected goals in this matchOrange County SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.25

Austin Bold

1.62

Orange County SC

1.25

Austin Bold creates 30% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 138 away

1.71

creates per match

1.35

1.14

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Austin Bold

1.71

Orange County SC

1.35

allows per match

Austin Bold

1.14

Orange County SC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austin Bold+0.00on par

Orange County SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin Bold ↓

Orange County SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Austin Bold or draw

70%

Austin Bold or Orange County SC

76%

Draw or Orange County SC

54%

Winning margin

Austin Bold wins by 2+

24%

Orange County SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Austin Bold 1+ goals

80%

Austin Bold 2+ goals

48%

Austin Bold 3+ goals

22%

Orange County SC 1+ goals

71%

Orange County SC 2+ goals

36%

Orange County SC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Austin Bold (draw refunded)

61%

Orange County SC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin Bold at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Orange County SC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin Bold attack 1.71 + Orange County SC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.62

Orange County SC attack 1.35 + Austin Bold defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Austin Bold scores more

46%

level

24%

Orange County SC scores more

30%

Austin Bold at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Austin Bold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff