Optik Rathenow 0–4 Neustrelitz: Result & Stats

Optik Rathenow

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Neustrelitz

5/18/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 28Stadion Vogelgesang

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Optik Rathenow40%

×Draw24%

Neustrelitz36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Optik RathenowExpected goals in this matchNeustrelitz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.53

Optik Rathenow

1.63

Neustrelitz

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 81 away

1.61

creates per match

1.47

1.59

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Optik Rathenow

1.61

Neustrelitz

1.47

allows per match

Optik Rathenow

1.59

Neustrelitz

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

Neustrelitz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw

64%

Optik Rathenow or Neustrelitz

76%

Draw or Neustrelitz

60%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+

20%

Neustrelitz wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals

80%

Optik Rathenow 2+ goals

48%

Optik Rathenow 3+ goals

22%

Neustrelitz 1+ goals

78%

Neustrelitz 2+ goals

45%

Neustrelitz 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)

53%

Neustrelitz (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Neustrelitz away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.64 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.61 + Neustrelitz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Neustrelitz attack 1.47 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more

40%

level

24%

Neustrelitz scores more

36%

Optik Rathenow at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Optik Rathenow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff