Neustrelitz 5–1 Optik Rathenow: Result & Stats

Neustrelitz

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Optik Rathenow

9/14/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 5Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Neustrelitz57%

×Draw21%

Optik Rathenow22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NeustrelitzExpected goals in this matchOptik Rathenow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.23

Neustrelitz

2.08

Optik Rathenow

1.23

Neustrelitz creates 69% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 62 away

2.12

creates per match

1.26

1.19

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Neustrelitz

2.12

Optik Rathenow

1.26

allows per match

Neustrelitz

1.19

Optik Rathenow

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neustrelitz+0.00on par

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neustrelitz ↓

Optik Rathenow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Neustrelitz or draw

78%

Neustrelitz or Optik Rathenow

79%

Draw or Optik Rathenow

43%

Winning margin

Neustrelitz wins by 2+

34%

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Neustrelitz 1+ goals

87%

Neustrelitz 2+ goals

61%

Neustrelitz 3+ goals

34%

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals

71%

Optik Rathenow 2+ goals

35%

Optik Rathenow 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Neustrelitz (draw refunded)

72%

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neustrelitz at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.19 · 81 matches

Optik Rathenow away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.03 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neustrelitz attack 2.12 + Optik Rathenow defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.08

Optik Rathenow attack 1.26 + Neustrelitz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Neustrelitz scores more

57%

level

21%

Optik Rathenow scores more

22%

Neustrelitz at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Neustrelitz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff