Optik Rathenow vs Altglienicke

Optik Rathenow

CANC

17:00

Altglienicke

1/15/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Optik Rathenow21%

×Draw18%

Altglienicke61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Optik RathenowExpected goals in this matchAltglienicke

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.71

Optik Rathenow

1.56

Altglienicke

2.71

Altglienicke creates 74% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

1.63

creates per match

2.78

2.63

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Optik Rathenow

1.63

Altglienicke

2.78

allows per match

Optik Rathenow

2.63

Altglienicke

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Altglienicke+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Optik Rathenow ↓

Altglienicke →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Optik Rathenow or draw

39%

Optik Rathenow or Altglienicke

82%

Draw or Altglienicke

79%

Winning margin

Optik Rathenow wins by 2+

9%

Altglienicke wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Optik Rathenow 1+ goals

79%

Optik Rathenow 2+ goals

46%

Optik Rathenow 3+ goals

21%

Altglienicke 1+ goals

93%

Altglienicke 2+ goals

75%

Altglienicke 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)

26%

Altglienicke (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Optik Rathenow at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.63 · 24 matches

Altglienicke away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Optik Rathenow attack 1.63 + Altglienicke defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Altglienicke attack 2.78 + Optik Rathenow defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Optik Rathenow scores more

21%

level

18%

Altglienicke scores more

61%

Altglienicke at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Altglienicke will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff