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Altglienicke vs Optik Rathenow — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Altglienicke
Altglienicke
FT
6 – 0
Optik Rathenow
Optik Rathenow
7/9/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Willi-Sänger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Altglienicke62%
×Draw18%
Optik Rathenow20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altglienicke
2.62
Optik Rathenow
1.44

Altglienicke creates 82% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Altglienicke
3.36
Optik Rathenow
1.88

allows per match

Altglienicke
1.00
Optik Rathenow
1.88

finishing

Altglienicke+0.00on par
Optik Rathenow+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altglienicke ↓

Optik Rathenow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Altglienicke or draw
80%
Altglienicke or Optik Rathenow
82%
Draw or Optik Rathenow
38%

Winning margin

Altglienicke wins by 2+
41%
Optik Rathenow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Altglienicke 1+ goals
93%
Altglienicke 2+ goals
73%
Altglienicke 3+ goals
48%
Optik Rathenow 1+ goals
76%
Optik Rathenow 2+ goals
42%
Optik Rathenow 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Altglienicke (draw refunded)
76%
Optik Rathenow (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altglienicke at home — creates 3.36, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Optik Rathenow away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altglienicke attack 3.36 + Optik Rathenow defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.62

Optik Rathenow attack 1.88 + Altglienicke defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Altglienicke scores more
62%
level
18%
Optik Rathenow scores more
20%

Altglienicke at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Altglienicke will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Altglienicke vs Optik Rathenow

Altglienicke beat Optik Rathenow 6-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Willi-Sänger-Stadion in Berlin.