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OPS Oulu vs Kuopion Elo — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

OPS Oulu
OPS Oulu
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kuopion Elo
Kuopion Elo
7/21/2024Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 15Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

OPS Oulu55%
×Draw20%
Kuopion Elo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OPS Oulu
2.27
Kuopion Elo
1.47

OPS Oulu creates 54% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

creates per match

OPS Oulu
1.78
Kuopion Elo
1.27

allows per match

OPS Oulu
1.67
Kuopion Elo
2.77

finishing

OPS Oulu+0.00on par
Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OPS Oulu ↓

Kuopion Elo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

OPS Oulu or draw
75%
OPS Oulu or Kuopion Elo
80%
Draw or Kuopion Elo
45%

Winning margin

OPS Oulu wins by 2+
34%
Kuopion Elo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

OPS Oulu 1+ goals
90%
OPS Oulu 2+ goals
66%
OPS Oulu 3+ goals
39%
Kuopion Elo 1+ goals
77%
Kuopion Elo 2+ goals
43%
Kuopion Elo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

OPS Oulu (draw refunded)
69%
Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OPS Oulu at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OPS Oulu attack 1.78 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.27

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + OPS Oulu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

OPS Oulu scores more
55%
level
20%
Kuopion Elo scores more
25%

OPS Oulu at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "OPS Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: OPS Oulu 2–2 Kuopion Elo

OPS Oulu and Kuopion Elo drew 2-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Oulu-lehti Areena in Oulu.