Kuopion Elo 5–2 OPS Oulu: Result & Stats

Kuopion Elo

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

OPS Oulu

5/19/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 6Väre Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kuopion Elo66%

×Draw17%

OPS Oulu18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kuopion EloExpected goals in this matchOPS Oulu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.89

1.48

Kuopion Elo

2.89

OPS Oulu

1.48

Kuopion Elo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.22

1.75

allows per match

3.78

creates per match

Kuopion Elo

2.00

OPS Oulu

1.22

allows per match

Kuopion Elo

1.75

OPS Oulu

3.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

OPS Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuopion Elo ↓

OPS Oulu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Kuopion Elo or draw

82%

Kuopion Elo or OPS Oulu

83%

Draw or OPS Oulu

34%

Winning margin

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+

46%

OPS Oulu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals

94%

Kuopion Elo 2+ goals

78%

Kuopion Elo 3+ goals

54%

OPS Oulu 1+ goals

77%

OPS Oulu 2+ goals

43%

OPS Oulu 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)

79%

OPS Oulu (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuopion Elo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

OPS Oulu away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuopion Elo attack 2.00 + OPS Oulu defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.89

OPS Oulu attack 1.22 + Kuopion Elo defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kuopion Elo scores more

66%

level

17%

OPS Oulu scores more

18%

Kuopion Elo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kuopion Elo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff