Oppsal 6–0 Skeid II: Result & Stats

Oppsal

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Skeid II

6/23/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 12Trasop kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oppsal66%

×Draw16%

Skeid II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OppsalExpected goals in this matchSkeid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.47

Oppsal

2.92

Skeid II

1.47

Oppsal creates 99% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.23

creates per match

1.85

1.08

allows per match

3.62

creates per match

Oppsal

2.23

Skeid II

1.85

allows per match

Oppsal

1.08

Skeid II

3.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par

Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Skeid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw

83%

Oppsal or Skeid II

84%

Draw or Skeid II

34%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+

46%

Skeid II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals

94%

Oppsal 2+ goals

78%

Oppsal 3+ goals

55%

Skeid II 1+ goals

77%

Skeid II 2+ goals

43%

Skeid II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)

79%

Skeid II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.85, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 2.23 + Skeid II defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.92

Skeid II attack 1.85 + Oppsal defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Oppsal scores more

66%

level

16%

Skeid II scores more

17%

Oppsal at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff