Oppsal 3–3 Skeid II: Result & Stats

Oppsal

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 3

Skeid II

M. Hoang 35'

E. Jammeh 31', 27'

T. Naustdal 43'

C. F. Sveen N. 29'

H. G. Diallo 22'

9/4/2023

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 18Trasop kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Oppsal46%

×Draw21%

Skeid II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OppsalExpected goals in this matchSkeid II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.74

Oppsal

2.10

Skeid II

1.74

Oppsal creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

1.82

creates per match

1.84

1.64

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Oppsal

1.82

Skeid II

1.84

allows per match

Oppsal

1.64

Skeid II

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oppsal+0.00on par

Skeid II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oppsal ↓

Skeid II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Oppsal or draw

67%

Oppsal or Skeid II

79%

Draw or Skeid II

54%

Winning margin

Oppsal wins by 2+

27%

Skeid II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Oppsal 1+ goals

88%

Oppsal 2+ goals

62%

Oppsal 3+ goals

35%

Skeid II 1+ goals

82%

Skeid II 2+ goals

52%

Skeid II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Oppsal (draw refunded)

59%

Skeid II (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oppsal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

Skeid II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oppsal attack 1.82 + Skeid II defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.10

Skeid II attack 1.84 + Oppsal defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oppsal scores more

46%

level

21%

Skeid II scores more

33%

Oppsal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oppsal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

H. G. Diallo

27'

E. Jammeh

29'

C. F. Sveen N.

31'

E. Jammeh

35'

M. Hoang

43'

T. Naustdal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff