Operario-PR vs Ponte Preta — Serie B 2026
Serie B · Round 19
Operario-PR have scored in 15 games running
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 113+ matches
Operario-PR45%
Ponte Preta26%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Operario-PR creates 45% more chances
Season form · 113 home / 129 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Operario-PR ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Operario-PR at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.91 · 113 matches
Ponte Preta away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 129 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Operario-PR attack 1.21 + Ponte Preta defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23
Ponte Preta attack 0.80 + Operario-PR defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Operario-PR at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Operario-PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Ponte Preta score first in only 21% of matches
- Operario-PR are unbeaten in 5 straight
- Operario-PR sit 4, Ponte Preta 20 in the table
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesHead-to-head
9 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Criciuma
Goias
JuventudeOperario-PR
Fortaleza EC
Londrina
Botafogo SP
Avai
Cuiaba
Atletico Goianiense
CRB
Novorizontino
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
São Bernardo
America Mineiro
Athletic Club
Ceara
Nautico RecifePonte PretaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Operario-PR host Ponte Preta on Wednesday, 22 July 2026 at 22:30. The match is part of the Serie B 2026/2027 season.
Preview: Operario-PR host Ponte Preta
July 22, 2026: Operario-PR take on Ponte Preta in Serie B. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.