Operario-PR 2–0 CRB: Result & Stats | Serie B

Operario-PR

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CRB

Felipe Augusto 50'

Maxwell 11'

8/4/2024

Serie B · Round 19Estádio Germano Krüger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Operario-PR45%

×Draw28%

CRB27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario-PRExpected goals in this matchCRB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.95

Operario-PR

1.30

CRB

0.95

Operario-PR creates 37% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

1.08

0.81

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Operario-PR

1.39

CRB

1.08

allows per match

Operario-PR

0.81

CRB

1.21

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Operario-PR+0.36scores more

CRB+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario-PR ↓

CRB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Operario-PR or draw

73%

Operario-PR or CRB

72%

Draw or CRB

55%

Winning margin

Operario-PR wins by 2+

20%

CRB wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Operario-PR 1+ goals

73%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

37%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

14%

CRB 1+ goals

61%

CRB 2+ goals

25%

CRB 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

62%

CRB (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario-PR at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.81 · 12 matches

CRB away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.21 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario-PR attack 1.39 + CRB defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

CRB attack 1.08 + Operario-PR defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Operario-PR scores more

45%

level

28%

CRB scores more

27%

Operario-PR at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Operario-PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Felipe Augusto

Operario-PR · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

Maxwell↳ Dudu Scheit

14'

Eduardo Scheit

39'

Pará

46'

Daniel Lima← Vinícius Mingotti

46'

Caio César← Raí

50'

Felipe Augusto

52'

Gustavo Henrique

55'

Lucas Hipólito← Pará

58'

Rafael Bilu← F. Labandeira

58'

Gegê← Rômulo

58'

Anselmo Ramon← João Neto

65'

Gui Azevedo← Dudu Scheit

70'

Sávio← Thales Oleques

70'

Neto Paraíba← Índio

73'

Guilherme Azevedo

85'

Mike← Kleiton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Operario-PRCRB

Overview

45%Possession55%

19Total Shots6

0.79Expected Goals (xG)0.18

8Corners2

24Fouls21

Shots

19Total Shots6

4On Target3

7Off Target2

8Blocked1

8Inside Box2

11Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

299Total Passes378

233Accurate Passes296

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

24Fouls21

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2