CRB 1–1 Operario-PR: Result & Stats | Serie B

CRB

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Operario-PR

Rodrigo Jesse 55'

Maxwell 58'

11/24/2024

Serie B · Round 38Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

CRB51%

×Draw24%

Operario-PR25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CRBExpected goals in this matchOperario-PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.10

CRB

1.67

Operario-PR

1.10

CRB creates 52% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

1.07

1.12

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

CRB

1.56

Operario-PR

1.07

allows per match

CRB

1.12

Operario-PR

1.78

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

CRB-0.02on par

Operario-PR+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Operario-PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

CRB or draw

75%

CRB or Operario-PR

76%

Draw or Operario-PR

49%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+

27%

Operario-PR wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals

81%

CRB 2+ goals

50%

CRB 3+ goals

23%

Operario-PR 1+ goals

67%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

30%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)

67%

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

Operario-PR away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.56 + Operario-PR defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Operario-PR attack 1.07 + CRB defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

CRB scores more

51%

level

24%

Operario-PR scores more

25%

CRB at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Allan Godói

Operario-PR · D

7.9

Match Events

31'

Guilherme Borech

46'

L. Segovia← Ryan

46'

Rodrigo Jesse← Vinicius Barata

55'

Rodrigo Jesse↳ Rafael Bilu

58'

Maxwell↳ S. Ocampos

60'

Mike← Getúlio

60'

João Pedro← Marco Antônio

67'

João Gabriel← S. Ocampos

68'

Lucas Kallyel← Rômulo

68'

Rafael Oller← Maxwell

71'

Rodrigo Jesse

77'

Dudu← Filipe Claudino

77'

Daniel Lima← Nathan Fogaça

86'

João Pedro

87'

Zé Pagliarini← Índio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CRBOperario-PR

Overview

42%Possession58%

8Total Shots21

2Corners6

17Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots21

4On Target7

2Off Target8

2Blocked6

3Inside Box10

5Outside Box11

Passing

42%Possession58%

360Total Passes498

276Accurate Passes434

77%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3