Operario-PR 1–0 Coritiba: Result & Stats | Serie B

Operario-PR

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Coritiba

J. Zuluaga 1'

8/29/2025

Serie B · Round 24Estádio Germano Krüger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Operario-PR47%

×Draw27%

Coritiba27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario-PRExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.00

Operario-PR

1.42

Coritiba

1.00

Operario-PR creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

1.09

0.90

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Operario-PR

1.47

Coritiba

1.09

allows per match

Operario-PR

0.90

Coritiba

1.37

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

Operario-PR+0.20scores more

Coritiba-0.65scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario-PR ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Operario-PR or draw

73%

Operario-PR or Coritiba

73%

Draw or Coritiba

53%

Winning margin

Operario-PR wins by 2+

23%

Coritiba wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Operario-PR 1+ goals

76%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

41%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

17%

Coritiba 1+ goals

63%

Coritiba 2+ goals

26%

Coritiba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

64%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario-PR at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.90 · 9 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario-PR attack 1.47 + Coritiba defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Coritiba attack 1.09 + Operario-PR defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Operario-PR scores more

47%

level

27%

Coritiba scores more

27%

Operario-PR at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Operario-PR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Zuluaga

Operario-PR · M

7.6

Match Events

1'

J. Zuluaga↳ Ademilson

14'

27'

33'

45'

46'

Kleiton← Neto Paraiba

46'

Tiago Coser← Joao Almeida

46'

Wallisson← Filipe Machado

53'

Sebastian Gomez

65'

Wallisson Luiz

66'

Jaime Giraldo

66'

Vinicius Mingotti← Rodrigo Rodrigues

68'

Nicolas Careca← Gustavo Coutinho

68'

Rodrigo Rodrigues← Iury Castilho

78'

Andre← Indio

78'

Daniel Amorim← Ademilson

79'

Vini Paulista← C. de Pena

85'

88'

89'

90+4'

90+3'

Thiaguinho← Boschilia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Operario-PRCoritiba

Overview

41%Possession59%

17Total Shots7

4Corners7

22Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots7

3On Target1

6Off Target4

8Blocked2

5Inside Box5

12Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

302Total Passes443

241Accurate Passes369

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

22Fouls12

5Yellow Cards6

0Offsides2