Coritiba 3–0 Operario-PR: Result & Stats | Serie B

Coritiba

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Operario-PR

Matheus Frizzo 28', 9' (pen)

Everton Morelli 3'

5/27/2024

Serie B · Round 7Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Coritiba53%

×Draw24%

Operario-PR23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoritibaExpected goals in this matchOperario-PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.00

Coritiba

1.68

Operario-PR

1.00

Coritiba creates 68% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.58

creates per match

1.07

0.94

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Coritiba

1.58

Operario-PR

1.07

allows per match

Coritiba

0.94

Operario-PR

1.78

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Coritiba-0.36scores less

Operario-PR+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coritiba ↓

Operario-PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coritiba or draw

77%

Coritiba or Operario-PR

76%

Draw or Operario-PR

47%

Winning margin

Coritiba wins by 2+

29%

Operario-PR wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Coritiba 1+ goals

81%

Coritiba 2+ goals

50%

Coritiba 3+ goals

24%

Operario-PR 1+ goals

63%

Operario-PR 2+ goals

26%

Operario-PR 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coritiba (draw refunded)

70%

Operario-PR (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coritiba at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.94 · 9 matches

Operario-PR away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coritiba attack 1.58 + Operario-PR defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Operario-PR attack 1.07 + Coritiba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Coritiba scores more

53%

level

24%

Operario-PR scores more

23%

Coritiba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Coritiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Matheus Frizzo

Coritiba · M

8.9

Match Events

3'

Everton Morelli

9'

Matheus FrizzoPenalty

27'

S. Ocampos← Sávio

28'

Matheus Frizzo↳ Figueiredo

41'

Índio

46'

Ronald← Vinícius Diniz

46'

Pedro Lucas← Rodrigo Rodrigues

46'

Jacy← Índio

61'

Matheus Bianqui← Matheus Frizzo

71'

Jhonny← Natanael

79'

Wesley Pomba← Figueiredo

79'

Brandão← Leandro Damião

79'

Pará← Lucas Hipólito

82'

Brandão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoritibaOperario-PR

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots10

5Corners4

20Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target3

5Off Target3

1Blocked4

4Inside Box2

7Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

360Total Passes536

288Accurate Passes470

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0