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Operario Ferroviario vs CRAC — Serie D 2026

Operario Ferroviario
Operario Ferroviario
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CRAC
CRAC
Einstein 85'
A. Choco 64'
5/31/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Operario Ferroviario28%
×Draw32%
CRAC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Operario Ferroviario
0.83
CRAC
1.06

CRAC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 27 away

creates per match

Operario Ferroviario
0.77
CRAC
1.11

allows per match

Operario Ferroviario
1.00
CRAC
0.89

finishing

Operario Ferroviario+0.00on par
CRAC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario Ferroviario ↓

CRAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Operario Ferroviario or draw
60%
Operario Ferroviario or CRAC
68%
Draw or CRAC
72%

Winning margin

Operario Ferroviario wins by 2+
9%
CRAC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Operario Ferroviario 1+ goals
56%
Operario Ferroviario 2+ goals
20%
Operario Ferroviario 3+ goals
5%
CRAC 1+ goals
65%
CRAC 2+ goals
29%
CRAC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Operario Ferroviario (draw refunded)
41%
CRAC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario Ferroviario at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

CRAC away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario Ferroviario attack 0.77 + CRAC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.83

CRAC attack 1.11 + Operario Ferroviario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Operario Ferroviario scores more
28%
level
32%
CRAC scores more
40%

CRAC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CRAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
64'
A. Choco
85'
Einstein

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Operario Ferroviario vs CRAC

Operario Ferroviario beat CRAC 2-0 in Serie D on May 31, 2026.

Goals: A. Choco (64'), Einstein (85').