CRAC 0–0 Operario Ferroviario: Result & Stats

CRAC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Operario Ferroviario

4/12/2026

Serie D · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CRAC60%

×Draw24%

Operario Ferroviario16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CRACExpected goals in this matchOperario Ferroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.74

CRAC

1.68

Operario Ferroviario

0.74

CRAC creates 127% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

1.54

creates per match

0.73

0.75

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

CRAC

1.54

Operario Ferroviario

0.73

allows per match

CRAC

0.75

Operario Ferroviario

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CRAC+0.00on par

Operario Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRAC ↓

Operario Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CRAC or draw

84%

CRAC or Operario Ferroviario

76%

Draw or Operario Ferroviario

40%

Winning margin

CRAC wins by 2+

33%

Operario Ferroviario wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CRAC 1+ goals

81%

CRAC 2+ goals

50%

CRAC 3+ goals

24%

Operario Ferroviario 1+ goals

52%

Operario Ferroviario 2+ goals

17%

Operario Ferroviario 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

CRAC (draw refunded)

79%

Operario Ferroviario (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRAC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.75 · 28 matches

Operario Ferroviario away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRAC attack 1.54 + Operario Ferroviario defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.68

Operario Ferroviario attack 0.73 + CRAC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CRAC scores more

60%

level

24%

Operario Ferroviario scores more

16%

CRAC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CRAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff