Operario Ferroviario 0–2 Cianorte: Result & Stats

Operario Ferroviario

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cianorte

Peu 72'

Natham 29'

7/26/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Jacques da Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Operario Ferroviario37%

×Draw32%

Cianorte31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Operario FerroviarioExpected goals in this matchCianorte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.89

Operario Ferroviario

1.00

Cianorte

0.89

Operario Ferroviario creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

1.00

creates per match

0.85

0.92

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Operario Ferroviario

1.00

Cianorte

0.85

allows per match

Operario Ferroviario

0.92

Cianorte

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Operario Ferroviario+0.00on par

Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario Ferroviario ↓

Cianorte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Operario Ferroviario or draw

69%

Operario Ferroviario or Cianorte

68%

Draw or Cianorte

63%

Winning margin

Operario Ferroviario wins by 2+

14%

Cianorte wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Operario Ferroviario 1+ goals

63%

Operario Ferroviario 2+ goals

26%

Operario Ferroviario 3+ goals

8%

Cianorte 1+ goals

59%

Cianorte 2+ goals

22%

Cianorte 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Operario Ferroviario (draw refunded)

54%

Cianorte (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario Ferroviario at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Cianorte away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario Ferroviario attack 1.00 + Cianorte defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Cianorte attack 0.85 + Operario Ferroviario defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Operario Ferroviario scores more

37%

level

32%

Cianorte scores more

31%

Operario Ferroviario at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Operario Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Natham

45+2'

72'

Peu

Operario

Cianorte

Manager: Leocir Dall'Astra

Manager: Renato Peixe