Cianorte 1–0 Operario Ferroviario: Result & Stats

Cianorte

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Operario Ferroviario

Caique 90'

4/19/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cianorte61%

×Draw22%

Operario Ferroviario16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CianorteExpected goals in this matchOperario Ferroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.83

Cianorte

1.85

Operario Ferroviario

0.83

Cianorte creates 123% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

1.78

creates per match

0.83

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Cianorte

1.78

Operario Ferroviario

0.83

allows per match

Cianorte

0.83

Operario Ferroviario

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cianorte+0.00on par

Operario Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cianorte ↓

Operario Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cianorte or draw

84%

Cianorte or Operario Ferroviario

78%

Draw or Operario Ferroviario

39%

Winning margin

Cianorte wins by 2+

36%

Operario Ferroviario wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cianorte 1+ goals

84%

Cianorte 2+ goals

55%

Cianorte 3+ goals

28%

Operario Ferroviario 1+ goals

56%

Operario Ferroviario 2+ goals

20%

Operario Ferroviario 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cianorte (draw refunded)

79%

Operario Ferroviario (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cianorte at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Operario Ferroviario away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cianorte attack 1.78 + Operario Ferroviario defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.85

Operario Ferroviario attack 0.83 + Cianorte defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cianorte scores more

61%

level

22%

Operario Ferroviario scores more

16%

Cianorte at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

Caique

Cianorte

Operario

⚽

Manager: Renato Peixe

Cianorte substitutes

NimagaSchulzRamosTitePortelTiepoCoutinhoSouzaPradoIvoGustavo

Manager: Leocir Dall'Astra

Operario Ferroviario substitutes

BidickLanzaTicoSouzaMarcelItaloAugustoHenriqueVillelaFreire

Match Recap: Cianorte vs Operario Ferroviario

Cianorte beat Operario Ferroviario 1-0 in Serie D on April 19, 2025.

Goals: Caique (90').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay in Cianorte, Paraná.

Cianorte vs Operario Ferroviario — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cianorte vs Operario Ferroviario