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Operario Ferroviario vs Cascavel — Serie D 2026

Operario Ferroviario
Operario Ferroviario
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cascavel
Cascavel
Unknown 41'
6/14/2025Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Estadual Jacques da Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Operario Ferroviario34%
×Draw32%
Cascavel34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Operario Ferroviario
0.94
Cascavel
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 50 away

creates per match

Operario Ferroviario
0.77
Cascavel
0.90

allows per match

Operario Ferroviario
1.00
Cascavel
1.10

finishing

Operario Ferroviario+0.00on par
Cascavel+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Operario Ferroviario ↓

Cascavel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Operario Ferroviario or draw
66%
Operario Ferroviario or Cascavel
68%
Draw or Cascavel
66%

Winning margin

Operario Ferroviario wins by 2+
12%
Cascavel wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Operario Ferroviario 1+ goals
61%
Operario Ferroviario 2+ goals
24%
Operario Ferroviario 3+ goals
7%
Cascavel 1+ goals
61%
Cascavel 2+ goals
25%
Cascavel 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Operario Ferroviario (draw refunded)
50%
Cascavel (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Operario Ferroviario at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Cascavel away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Operario Ferroviario attack 0.77 + Cascavel defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.94

Cascavel attack 0.90 + Operario Ferroviario defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Operario Ferroviario scores more
34%
level
32%
Cascavel scores more
34%

Operario Ferroviario at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Operario Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
Operario
Cascavel
Leocir Dall'Astra
Manager: Leocir Dall'Astra
Tcheco
Manager: Tcheco

Serie D: Operario Ferroviario 0–0 Cascavel

Operario Ferroviario and Cascavel drew 0-0 in Serie D on June 14, 2025.

Goals: ? (41').

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Jacques da Luz in Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul.