Cascavel 3–1 Operario Ferroviario: Result & Stats

Cascavel

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Operario Ferroviario

Brener 84'

Josiel 56'

Michel 18'

Vinicius 74', 20'

5/24/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Olímpico Regional Jacy Miguel Scanagatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Cascavel54%

×Draw26%

Operario Ferroviario20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CascavelExpected goals in this matchOperario Ferroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.82

Cascavel

1.53

Operario Ferroviario

0.82

Cascavel creates 87% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 22 away

1.24

creates per match

0.73

0.92

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Cascavel

1.24

Operario Ferroviario

0.73

allows per match

Cascavel

0.92

Operario Ferroviario

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cascavel+0.00on par

Operario Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cascavel ↓

Operario Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cascavel or draw

80%

Cascavel or Operario Ferroviario

74%

Draw or Operario Ferroviario

46%

Winning margin

Cascavel wins by 2+

28%

Operario Ferroviario wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cascavel 1+ goals

78%

Cascavel 2+ goals

45%

Cascavel 3+ goals

20%

Operario Ferroviario 1+ goals

56%

Operario Ferroviario 2+ goals

20%

Operario Ferroviario 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cascavel (draw refunded)

73%

Operario Ferroviario (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cascavel at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

Operario Ferroviario away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cascavel attack 1.24 + Operario Ferroviario defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Operario Ferroviario attack 0.73 + Cascavel defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cascavel scores more

54%

level

26%

Operario Ferroviario scores more

20%

Cascavel at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cascavel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Michel

20'

Vinicius

56'

Josiel

74'

Vinicius

75'

Vinicius

84'

Brener

Cascavel

Operario

⚽

⚽

Manager: Tcheco

Cascavel substitutes

GeovaneLíbanoMarcãoBrenerGarratySilvaGustavoFloresJuninhoBelémNeguebaLopes

Manager: Leocir Dall'Astra

Operario Ferroviario substitutes

BambeloFreireTicoElieserVillelaAugustoHenriqueItaloMarcelSampaioLanza

Serie D: Cascavel 3–1 Operario Ferroviario

Cascavel beat Operario Ferroviario 3-1 in Serie D on May 24, 2025.

Goals: Michel (18'), Vinicius (20', 74'), Josiel (56'), Brener (84').

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Regional Jacy Miguel Scanagatta in Cascavel.

Cascavel vs Operario Ferroviario — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Cascavel 3–1 Operario Ferroviario