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Opava U19 vs Meteor Praha U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Opava U19
Opava U19
CANC
09:30
Meteor Praha U19
Meteor Praha U19
5/8/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 23Stadion v Městských sadech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Opava U1947%
×Draw21%
Meteor Praha U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava U19
2.03
Meteor Praha U19
1.63

Opava U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Opava U19
1.12
Meteor Praha U19
0.83

allows per match

Opava U19
2.42
Meteor Praha U19
2.94

finishing

Opava U19+0.00on par
Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava U19 ↓

Meteor Praha U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Opava U19 or draw
69%
Opava U19 or Meteor Praha U19
79%
Draw or Meteor Praha U19
53%

Winning margin

Opava U19 wins by 2+
27%
Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Opava U19 1+ goals
87%
Opava U19 2+ goals
60%
Opava U19 3+ goals
33%
Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals
80%
Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals
48%
Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Opava U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Meteor Praha U19 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava U19 attack 1.12 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.03

Meteor Praha U19 attack 0.83 + Opava U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Opava U19 scores more
47%
level
21%
Meteor Praha U19 scores more
31%

Opava U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Opava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Opava U19 face Meteor Praha U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Opava U19 hosting Meteor Praha U19. Match starts May 8, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Opava U19 host Meteor Praha U19 at Stadion v Městských sadech.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.