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Meteor Praha U19 vs Opava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Meteor Praha U19
Meteor Praha U19
FT
3 – 2
Opava U19
Opava U19
9/18/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 8Sportovní Areál Libeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meteor Praha U1936%
×Draw21%
Opava U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meteor Praha U19
1.92
Opava U19
2.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

creates per match

Meteor Praha U19
1.44
Opava U19
0.88

allows per match

Meteor Praha U19
3.33
Opava U19
2.39

finishing

Meteor Praha U19+0.00on par
Opava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meteor Praha U19 ↓

Opava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Meteor Praha U19 or draw
57%
Meteor Praha U19 or Opava U19
79%
Draw or Opava U19
64%

Winning margin

Meteor Praha U19 wins by 2+
19%
Opava U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Meteor Praha U19 1+ goals
85%
Meteor Praha U19 2+ goals
57%
Meteor Praha U19 3+ goals
30%
Opava U19 1+ goals
88%
Opava U19 2+ goals
62%
Opava U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Meteor Praha U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Opava U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meteor Praha U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 3.33 · 18 matches

Opava U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meteor Praha U19 attack 1.44 + Opava U19 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.92

Opava U19 attack 0.88 + Meteor Praha U19 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Meteor Praha U19 scores more
36%
level
21%
Opava U19 scores more
43%

Opava U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Opava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meteor Praha U19 vs Opava U19

Meteor Praha U19 beat Opava U19 3-2 in 1. Liga U19 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Sportovní Areál Libeň in Praha.