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Opava U19 vs Baník Ostrava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Opava U19
Opava U19
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
O. Strnadel 74' (pen)
D. Prepsl 87'
M. Glamos 85'
S. Ninac 80'
J. Pira 50'
F. Stanek 26'
T. Frydl 5'
11/20/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 10UMT Kylešovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Opava U1924%
×Draw21%
Baník Ostrava U1955%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava U19
1.36
Baník Ostrava U19
2.12

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 77 away

creates per match

Opava U19
1.12
Baník Ostrava U19
1.81

allows per match

Opava U19
2.42
Baník Ostrava U19
1.60

finishing

Opava U19+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava U19 ↓

Baník Ostrava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Opava U19 or draw
45%
Opava U19 or Baník Ostrava U19
79%
Draw or Baník Ostrava U19
76%

Winning margin

Opava U19 wins by 2+
10%
Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Opava U19 1+ goals
74%
Opava U19 2+ goals
39%
Opava U19 3+ goals
16%
Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
88%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
62%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Opava U19 (draw refunded)
31%
Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava U19 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Baník Ostrava U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.60 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava U19 attack 1.12 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 1.81 + Opava U19 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Opava U19 scores more
24%
level
21%
Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
55%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
T. Frydl
26'
F. Stanek
46'
J. Pecnik← J. Pecnik
46'
J. Gebauer← J. Gebauer
50'
J. Pira
56'
R. Kozik
58'
M. Zastresek← M. Zastresek
58'
S. Ninac← S. Ninac
65'
F. Endrych
68'
J. Graclik← J. Graclik
68'
M. Glamos← M. Glamos
74'
O. StrnadelPenalty
77'
S. Dedik← S. Dedik
80'
S. Ninac
82'
D. Prepsl← D. Prepsl
84'
T. Hejhal← T. Hejhal
84'
S. Hottek← S. Hottek
85'
M. Glamos
87'
D. Prepsl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Opava U19 1–6 Baník Ostrava U19

Baník Ostrava U19 beat Opava U19 6-1 in 1. Liga U19 on November 20, 2024.

Goals: T. Frydl (5'), F. Stanek (26'), J. Pira (50'), O. Strnadel (74' pen), S. Ninac (80'), M. Glamos (85'), D. Prepsl (87').

The match was played at UMT Kylešovice in Kylešovice.