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Baník Ostrava U19 vs Opava U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Baník Ostrava U19
Baník Ostrava U19
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Opava U19
Opava U19
M. Glamos 86'
L. Dvoracek 57'
V. Skrkon 25'
S. Ninac 8'
M. Vladar 90'
J. Gebauer 33'
5/10/20251. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 25Areál SC Vista

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Baník Ostrava U1966%
×Draw18%
Opava U1915%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava U19
2.38
Opava U19
1.05

Baník Ostrava U19 creates 127% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava U19
2.37
Opava U19
0.88

allows per match

Baník Ostrava U19
1.22
Opava U19
2.39

finishing

Baník Ostrava U19+0.00on par
Opava U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava U19 ↓

Opava U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava U19 or draw
85%
Baník Ostrava U19 or Opava U19
82%
Draw or Opava U19
34%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava U19 wins by 2+
44%
Opava U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava U19 1+ goals
91%
Baník Ostrava U19 2+ goals
68%
Baník Ostrava U19 3+ goals
42%
Opava U19 1+ goals
65%
Opava U19 2+ goals
28%
Opava U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Opava U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.22 · 79 matches

Opava U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava U19 attack 2.37 + Opava U19 defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 2.38

Opava U19 attack 0.88 + Baník Ostrava U19 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Baník Ostrava U19 scores more
66%
level
18%
Opava U19 scores more
15%

Baník Ostrava U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Baník Ostrava U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Ninac
19'
M. Mrovec
25'
V. Skrkon
33'
J. Gebauer
56'
M. Glamos← M. Glamos
56'
J. Graclik← J. Graclik
57'
L. Dvoracek
58'
J. Pecnik← J. Pecnik
58'
O. Strnadel← O. Strnadel
65'
J. Danladi← J. Danladi
67'
J. Graclik
73'
P. Broz← P. Broz
75'
C. Lores← C. Lores
78'
V. Hendrych← V. Hendrych
86'
M. Glamos
90'
M. Vladar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Baník Ostrava U19 4–2 Opava U19

Baník Ostrava U19 beat Opava U19 4-2 in 1. Liga U19 on May 10, 2025.

Goals: S. Ninac (8'), V. Skrkon (25'), J. Gebauer (33'), L. Dvoracek (57'), M. Glamos (86'), M. Vladar (90').

The match was played at Areál SC Vista in Ostrava.