Opava II 4–0 Karviná II: Result & Stats

Opava II

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Karviná II

6/10/2022

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 26Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Opava II43%

×Draw21%

Karviná II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Opava IIExpected goals in this matchKarviná II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.88

Opava II

2.07

Karviná II

1.88

Opava II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 30 away

2.67

creates per match

2.37

1.38

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Opava II

2.67

Karviná II

2.37

allows per match

Opava II

1.38

Karviná II

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Opava II+0.00on par

Karviná II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava II ↓

Karviná II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Opava II or draw

64%

Opava II or Karviná II

79%

Draw or Karviná II

57%

Winning margin

Opava II wins by 2+

24%

Karviná II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Opava II 1+ goals

87%

Opava II 2+ goals

61%

Opava II 3+ goals

34%

Karviná II 1+ goals

85%

Karviná II 2+ goals

56%

Karviná II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Opava II (draw refunded)

55%

Karviná II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.38 · 76 matches

Karviná II away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava II attack 2.67 + Karviná II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.07

Karviná II attack 2.37 + Opava II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Opava II scores more

43%

level

21%

Karviná II scores more

36%

Opava II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff