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Karviná II vs Opava II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Karviná II
Karviná II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Opava II
Opava II
5/14/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 22Stadion Kovona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Karviná II59%
×Draw20%
Opava II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karviná II
2.23
Opava II
1.27

Karviná II creates 76% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 74 away

creates per match

Karviná II
2.84
Opava II
1.51

allows per match

Karviná II
1.03
Opava II
1.61

finishing

Karviná II+0.00on par
Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karviná II ↓

Opava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Karviná II or draw
79%
Karviná II or Opava II
80%
Draw or Opava II
41%

Winning margin

Karviná II wins by 2+
37%
Opava II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Karviná II 1+ goals
89%
Karviná II 2+ goals
65%
Karviná II 3+ goals
38%
Opava II 1+ goals
72%
Opava II 2+ goals
36%
Opava II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Karviná II (draw refunded)
74%
Opava II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karviná II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karviná II attack 2.84 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.23

Opava II attack 1.51 + Karviná II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Karviná II scores more
59%
level
20%
Opava II scores more
21%

Karviná II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Karviná II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karviná II vs Opava II

Karviná II beat Opava II 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kovona in Karviná.