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Opava II vs Jeseník — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Opava II
Opava II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jeseník
Jeseník
6/14/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 30Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Opava II63%
×Draw19%
Jeseník18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava II
2.37
Jeseník
1.19

Opava II creates 99% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

creates per match

Opava II
2.67
Jeseník
1.00

allows per match

Opava II
1.38
Jeseník
2.07

finishing

Opava II+0.00on par
Jeseník+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava II ↓

Jeseník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Opava II or draw
82%
Opava II or Jeseník
81%
Draw or Jeseník
37%

Winning margin

Opava II wins by 2+
41%
Jeseník wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Opava II 1+ goals
91%
Opava II 2+ goals
68%
Opava II 3+ goals
42%
Jeseník 1+ goals
70%
Jeseník 2+ goals
33%
Jeseník 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Opava II (draw refunded)
78%
Jeseník (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.38 · 76 matches

Jeseník away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava II attack 2.67 + Jeseník defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.37

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Opava II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Opava II scores more
63%
level
19%
Jeseník scores more
18%

Opava II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Opava II 2–1 Jeseník

Opava II beat Jeseník 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on June 14, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice in Velké Hoštice.