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Jeseník vs Opava II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Jeseník
Jeseník
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Opava II
Opava II
11/11/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 15Stadion Jeseník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jeseník31%
×Draw24%
Opava II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeseník
1.31
Opava II
1.62

Opava II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

creates per match

Jeseník
1.00
Opava II
1.51

allows per match

Jeseník
1.73
Opava II
1.61

finishing

Jeseník+0.00on par
Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeseník ↓

Opava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jeseník or draw
55%
Jeseník or Opava II
76%
Draw or Opava II
69%

Winning margin

Jeseník wins by 2+
13%
Opava II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jeseník 1+ goals
73%
Jeseník 2+ goals
38%
Jeseník 3+ goals
14%
Opava II 1+ goals
80%
Opava II 2+ goals
48%
Opava II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Jeseník (draw refunded)
41%
Opava II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeseník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Opava II attack 1.51 + Jeseník defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jeseník scores more
31%
level
24%
Opava II scores more
45%

Opava II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeseník vs Opava II

Jeseník beat Opava II 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jeseník in Jeseník.