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Opava II vs Havířov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Opava II
Opava II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Havířov
Havířov
8/10/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 2Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Opava II48%
×Draw21%
Havířov31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava II
2.14
Havířov
1.69

Opava II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 75 away

creates per match

Opava II
2.67
Havířov
2.01

allows per match

Opava II
1.38
Havířov
1.61

finishing

Opava II+0.00on par
Havířov+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava II ↓

Havířov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Opava II or draw
69%
Opava II or Havířov
79%
Draw or Havířov
52%

Winning margin

Opava II wins by 2+
28%
Havířov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Opava II 1+ goals
88%
Opava II 2+ goals
63%
Opava II 3+ goals
36%
Havířov 1+ goals
82%
Havířov 2+ goals
50%
Havířov 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Opava II (draw refunded)
61%
Havířov (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.38 · 76 matches

Havířov away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava II attack 2.67 + Havířov defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.14

Havířov attack 2.01 + Opava II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Opava II scores more
48%
level
21%
Havířov scores more
31%

Opava II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Opava II vs Havířov

Havířov beat Opava II 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice in Velké Hoštice.