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Havířov vs Opava II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Havířov
Havířov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Opava II
Opava II
3/24/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 18Stadion Dukla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Havířov52%
×Draw22%
Opava II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havířov
2.00
Opava II
1.39

Havířov creates 44% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 74 away

creates per match

Havířov
2.38
Opava II
1.51

allows per match

Havířov
1.27
Opava II
1.61

finishing

Havířov+0.00on par
Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havířov ↓

Opava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Havířov or draw
73%
Havířov or Opava II
78%
Draw or Opava II
48%

Winning margin

Havířov wins by 2+
30%
Opava II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Havířov 1+ goals
86%
Havířov 2+ goals
59%
Havířov 3+ goals
32%
Opava II 1+ goals
75%
Opava II 2+ goals
40%
Opava II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Havířov (draw refunded)
66%
Opava II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havířov at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havířov attack 2.38 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.00

Opava II attack 1.51 + Havířov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Havířov scores more
52%
level
22%
Opava II scores more
27%

Havířov at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Havířov 1–1 Opava II

Havířov and Opava II drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dukla in Havířov.