Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Opava II vs Bospor Bohumín — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Opava II
Opava II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
9/28/20254. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 9Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Opava II50%
×Draw21%
Bospor Bohumín29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opava II
2.11
Bospor Bohumín
1.59

Opava II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 77 away

creates per match

Opava II
2.67
Bospor Bohumín
1.81

allows per match

Opava II
1.38
Bospor Bohumín
1.55

finishing

Opava II+0.00on par
Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opava II ↓

Bospor Bohumín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Opava II or draw
71%
Opava II or Bospor Bohumín
79%
Draw or Bospor Bohumín
50%

Winning margin

Opava II wins by 2+
29%
Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Opava II 1+ goals
88%
Opava II 2+ goals
62%
Opava II 3+ goals
35%
Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
80%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
47%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Opava II (draw refunded)
63%
Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opava II at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.38 · 76 matches

Bospor Bohumín away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opava II attack 2.67 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.11

Bospor Bohumín attack 1.81 + Opava II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Opava II scores more
50%
level
21%
Bospor Bohumín scores more
29%

Opava II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Opava II 1–2 Bospor Bohumín

Bospor Bohumín beat Opava II 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Velké Hoštice in Velké Hoštice.