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Bospor Bohumín vs Opava II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Opava II
Opava II
3/10/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 16Stadion Bohumín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Bospor Bohumín51%
×Draw22%
Opava II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bospor Bohumín
1.90
Opava II
1.30

Bospor Bohumín creates 46% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 74 away

creates per match

Bospor Bohumín
2.19
Opava II
1.51

allows per match

Bospor Bohumín
1.09
Opava II
1.61

finishing

Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par
Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bospor Bohumín ↓

Opava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bospor Bohumín or draw
74%
Bospor Bohumín or Opava II
78%
Draw or Opava II
49%

Winning margin

Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
29%
Opava II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
85%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
56%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
29%
Opava II 1+ goals
73%
Opava II 2+ goals
37%
Opava II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
66%
Opava II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bospor Bohumín at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bospor Bohumín attack 2.19 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.90

Opava II attack 1.51 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bospor Bohumín scores more
51%
level
22%
Opava II scores more
26%

Bospor Bohumín at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bospor Bohumín vs Opava II

Bospor Bohumín beat Opava II 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Bohumín in Bohumín.