Opatija 2–1 Jadran Poreč: Result & Stats

Opatija

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jadran Poreč

G. Ajayi 54'

T. Kukoc 41' (pen)

I. Al Tharwan 65' (pen)

11/17/2023

Second NL · Round 14Stadion NK Opatija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Opatija68%

×Draw18%

Jadran Poreč13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OpatijaExpected goals in this matchJadran Poreč

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.89

Opatija

2.27

Jadran Poreč

0.89

Opatija creates 155% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

0.77

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Opatija

1.80

Jadran Poreč

1.00

allows per match

Opatija

0.77

Jadran Poreč

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Opatija+0.00on par

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opatija ↓

Jadran Poreč →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Opatija or draw

87%

Opatija or Jadran Poreč

82%

Draw or Jadran Poreč

32%

Winning margin

Opatija wins by 2+

45%

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Opatija 1+ goals

90%

Opatija 2+ goals

66%

Opatija 3+ goals

39%

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals

59%

Jadran Poreč 2+ goals

22%

Jadran Poreč 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Opatija (draw refunded)

84%

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opatija at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opatija attack 1.80 + Jadran Poreč defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.27

Jadran Poreč attack 1.00 + Opatija defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Opatija scores more

68%

level

18%

Jadran Poreč scores more

13%

Opatija at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

T. KukocPenalty

54'

G. Ajayi

65'

I. Al TharwanPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff