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Jadran Poreč vs Opatija — Second NL 2022

Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Opatija
Opatija
4/8/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 22Stadion Veli Jože

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jadran Poreč36%
×Draw25%
Opatija39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jadran Poreč
1.41
Opatija
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jadran Poreč
1.49
Opatija
1.40

allows per match

Jadran Poreč
1.56
Opatija
1.33

finishing

Jadran Poreč+0.00on par
Opatija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jadran Poreč ↓

Opatija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jadran Poreč or draw
61%
Jadran Poreč or Opatija
75%
Draw or Opatija
64%

Winning margin

Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
17%
Opatija wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
76%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
41%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
17%
Opatija 1+ goals
77%
Opatija 2+ goals
43%
Opatija 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
48%
Opatija (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jadran Poreč at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

Opatija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jadran Poreč attack 1.49 + Opatija defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Opatija attack 1.40 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jadran Poreč scores more
36%
level
25%
Opatija scores more
39%

Opatija at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jadran Poreč vs Opatija

Jadran Poreč beat Opatija 2-0 in Second NL on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Veli Jože in Poreč.