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Opatija vs Dugo Selo — Second NL 2022

Opatija
Opatija
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dugo Selo
Dugo Selo
3/1/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 17Stadion Kantrida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Opatija55%
×Draw24%
Dugo Selo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Opatija
1.76
Dugo Selo
1.01

Opatija creates 74% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Opatija
1.80
Dugo Selo
1.25

allows per match

Opatija
0.77
Dugo Selo
1.72

finishing

Opatija+0.00on par
Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Opatija ↓

Dugo Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Opatija or draw
78%
Opatija or Dugo Selo
76%
Draw or Dugo Selo
45%

Winning margin

Opatija wins by 2+
31%
Dugo Selo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Opatija 1+ goals
83%
Opatija 2+ goals
52%
Opatija 3+ goals
26%
Dugo Selo 1+ goals
64%
Dugo Selo 2+ goals
27%
Dugo Selo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Opatija (draw refunded)
72%
Dugo Selo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Opatija at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.77 · 30 matches

Dugo Selo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Opatija attack 1.80 + Dugo Selo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dugo Selo attack 1.25 + Opatija defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Opatija scores more
55%
level
24%
Dugo Selo scores more
22%

Opatija at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Opatija 2–1 Dugo Selo

Opatija beat Dugo Selo 2-1 in Second NL on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kantrida in Rijeka.