Dugo Selo 0–1 Opatija: Result & Stats | Second NL

Dugo Selo

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Opatija

8/26/2023

Second NL · Round 2Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dugo Selo37%

×Draw26%

Opatija38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dugo SeloExpected goals in this matchOpatija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.36

Dugo Selo

1.34

Opatija

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.35

creates per match

1.40

1.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Dugo Selo

1.35

Opatija

1.40

allows per match

Dugo Selo

1.33

Opatija

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Opatija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

Opatija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw

62%

Dugo Selo or Opatija

74%

Draw or Opatija

63%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+

16%

Opatija wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals

74%

Dugo Selo 2+ goals

39%

Dugo Selo 3+ goals

15%

Opatija 1+ goals

74%

Opatija 2+ goals

39%

Opatija 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)

49%

Opatija (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Opatija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + Opatija defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Opatija attack 1.40 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dugo Selo scores more

37%

level

26%

Opatija scores more

38%

Opatija at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Opatija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff